Notes
Learn the ideas behind the numbers.
Short pieces on worst cases, longevity, model checks and reading uncertainty. Each one lets you try the idea for yourself.
Notes.
Short pieces on simulation for decisions. Each one lets you try the idea, and ends with what to take away.
- ExplainersWhy the worst case deserves more than one run a nightA 1-in-200 figure is an estimate, and with too few futures it wobbles more than anyone admits.Oct 2026
- Checking modelsProving a new model matches the old one, line by lineTotals that agree prove less than you think. Agreement has to hold record by record.Oct 2026
- Life insuranceWhat if people live two years longer?A small change in how long people live is a large change in what a pension costs.Oct 2026
- PensionsFive questions every trustee should be able to answerA short self-check for anyone who signs off on a pension scheme's risk.Oct 2026
- Checking modelsA receipt for every numberA figure you cannot reproduce is an opinion. A receipt makes it a fact.Oct 2026
- ExplainersReading a fan chart in 60 secondsThe middle line is not a forecast, and the edges are where the decisions are.Oct 2026
We cannot prevent every storm. We can help you prepare before it arrives.
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